Incremental value of biochemical and echocardiographic measures in prediction of ischemic stroke: the Strong Heart Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: American Indians have high rates of stroke. Improved risk stratification could enhance prevention, but the ability of biochemical and echocardiographic markers of preclinical disease to improve stroke prediction is not well-defined. METHODS: We evaluated such markers as predictors of ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort of American Indians without prevalent cardiovascular or renal disease. Laboratory markers included C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and glycohemoglobin (HbA1c), whereas echocardiographic parameters comprised left atrial diameter, left ventricular mass, mitral annular calcification, and the ratio of early to late mitral diastolic velocities. Predictive performance was judged by indices of discrimination, reclassification, and calibration. RESULTS: After adjustment for standard risk factors, only HbA1c, albuminuria, and left atrial diameter were significantly associated with first ischemic stroke. Addition of HbA1c, although not urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, to a basic clinical model significantly improved the C-statistic (0.714 versus 0.695; P=0.044), whereas left atrial diameter modestly enhanced integrated discrimination improvement (0.90%; P=0.004), but not the C-statistic (0.701; P=0.528). When combined with HbA1c, left atrial diameter further increased integrated discrimination improvement (1.81%; P<0.001) but not the C-statistic (0.716). No marker achieved significant net reclassification improvement. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort at high cardiometabolic risk, HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor of ischemic stroke when added to traditional risk factors, affording substantially improved discrimination, with a more modest contribution for left atrial diameter. These findings bolster the role of HbA1c in cardiovascular risk assessment among persons with glycometabolic disorders and provide impetus for further study of the incremental value of echocardiography in high-risk populations.

Incidence and risk factors for stroke in American Indians: the Strong Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: There are few published data on the incidence of fatal and nonfatal stroke in American Indians. The aims of this observational study were to determine the incidence of stroke and to elucidate stroke risk factors among American Indians. METHODS AND RESULTS: This report is based on 4549 participants aged 45 to 74 years at enrollment in the Strong Heart Study, the largest longitudinal, population-based study of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in a diverse group of American Indians. At baseline examination in 1989 to 1992, 42 participants (age- and sex-adjusted prevalence proportion 1132/100 000, adjusted to the age and sex distribution of the US adult population in 1990) had prevalent stroke. Through December 2004, 306 (6.8%) of 4507 participants without prior stroke suffered a first stroke at a mean age of 66.5 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence was 679/100 000 person-years. Nonhemorrhagic cerebral infarction occurred in 86% of participants with incident strokes; 14% had hemorrhagic stroke. The overall age-adjusted 30-day case-fatality rate from first stroke was 18%, with a 1-year case-fatality rate of 32%. Age, diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, hemoglobin A(1c,) smoking, albuminuria, hypertension, prehypertension, and diabetes mellitus were risk factors for incident stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with US white and black populations, American Indians have a higher incidence of stroke. The case-fatality rate for first stroke is also higher in American Indians than in the US white or black population in the same age range. Our findings suggest that blood pressure and glucose control and smoking avoidance may be important avenues for stroke prevention in this population.

Population-based study of the relationship between patent foramen ovale and cerebrovascular ischemic events.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a risk factor for a cryptogenic cerebrovascular ischemic event (CIE). METHODS: This case-control study of 1072 residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who underwent contrast transesophageal echocardiography between 1993 and 1997 included 519 controls without CIE randomly selected from the population, 262 controls without CIE referred for transesophageal echocardiography because of cardiac disease, 158 cases with incident CIE of obvious cause (noncryptogenic), and 133 cases with incident CIE of uncertain cause (cryptogenic). RESULTS: Large PFOs were detected in 108 randomly selected controls (20.8%), 22 referred controls (8.4%), 17 noncryptogenic CIE cases (10.8%), and 22 cryptogenic CIE cases (16.5%). After adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, and number of contrast injections, the presence of a large PFO was not significantly associated with group status (P=.07). Using the odds of the presence of large PFO in the randomly selected controls as the reference, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of the presence of large PFO was 0.47 (0.26-0.87) for referred controls, 0.69 (0.37-1.29) for noncryptogenic CIE cases, and 1.10 (0.63-1.90) for cryptogenic CIE cases. CONCLUSIONS: Patent foramen ovale is not a risk factor for cryptogenic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack in the general population. The PFO's importance in the genesis of cryptogenic CIE may have been overestimated in previous studies because of selective referral of cases and underascertainment of PFO among comparison groups of patients referred for echocardiography for clinical indications other than cryptogenic CIE.

Population-based study of the relationship between atherosclerotic aortic debris and cerebrovascular ischemic events.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of the suggestion that protruding atheromatous material in the thoracic aorta is an important cause of cerebrovascular ischemic events (CIEs) (ie, transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke). METHODS: This case-control study of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) from 1993 to 1997 included controls without CIE randomly selected from the population, controls without CIE referred for TEE because of cardiac disease, cases with incident CIE of obvious cause (noncryptogenic), and cases with incident CIE of uncertain cause (cryptogenic). RESULTS: Of the 1135 subjects, 520 were randomly selected controls without CIE, 329 were controls without CIE referred for TEE, 159 were noncryptogenic CIE cases, and 127 were cryptogenic CIE cases. Complex atherosclerotic aortic debris in ascending and transverse segments of the arch was detected in 8 randomly selected controls (1.5%), 13 referred controls (4.0%), and 15 noncryptogenic (9.4%) and 4 cryptogenic (3.1%) CIE cases. After adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, atrial fibrillation, valvular heart disease, congestive heart failure, and atherosclerosis other than in the thoracic aorta, complex atherosclerotic aortic debris was not significantly associated with group status. With randomly selected controls as the referent group, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.72 (0.61-4.87) for referred controls, 3.16 (1.18-8.51) for noncryptogenic CIE cases, and 1.39 (0.39-4.88) for cryptogenic CIE cases. CONCLUSIONS: Complex atherosclerotic aortic debris is not a risk factor for cryptogenic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack but is a marker for generalized atherosclerosis and well-established atherosclerotic and cardioembolic mechanisms of cerebral ischemia. Embolization from the aorta is not a common mechanism of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack.

Patent foramen ovale: innocent or guilty? Evidence from a prospective population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the association between patent foramen ovale (PFO), atrial septal aneurysm (ASA), and stroke prospectively in a unselected population sample. BACKGROUND: The disputed relationship between PFO and stroke reflects methodologic weaknesses in studies using invalid controls, unblinded transesophageal echocardiography examinations, and data that are unadjusted for age or comorbidity. METHODS: The use of transesophageal echocardiography to identify PFO was performed by a single echocardiographer using standardized definitions in 585 randomly sampled, Olmsted County (Minnesota) subjects age 45 years or older participating in the Stroke Prevention: Assessment of Risk in a Community (SPARC) study. RESULTS: A PFO was identified in 140 (24.3%) subjects and ASA in 11 (1.9%) subjects. Of the 140 subjects with PFO, 6 (4.3%) had an ASA; of the 437 subjects without PFO, 5 had an ASA (1.1%, two-sided Fisher exact test, p = 0.028). During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, cerebrovascular events (cerebrovascular disease-related death, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack) occurred in 41 subjects. After adjustment for age and comorbidity, PFO was not a significant independent predictor of stroke (hazard ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 2.88, p = 0.28). The risk of a cerebrovascular event among subjects with ASA was nearly four times higher than that in those without ASA (hazard ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 15.71, p = 0.074). CONCLUSIONS: These prospective population-based data suggest that, after correction for age and comorbidity, PFO is not an independent risk factor for future cerebrovascular events in the general population. A larger study is required to test the putative stroke risk associated with ASA.

Mitral annular calcification, aortic valve sclerosis, and incident stroke in adults free of clinical cardiovascular disease: the Strong Heart Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mitral annular calcification (MAC) and aortic valve (AV) sclerosis have each been linked to cardiovascular disease. Whether MAC and AV sclerosis are risk factors for stroke independent of other echocardiographic or laboratory predictors has not been established. We evaluated the relationship between MAC, AV sclerosis, and first stroke events in a population-based cohort. METHODS: Our study cohort consisted of 2723 American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease. Participants underwent standardized clinical, echocardiographic, and laboratory evaluation, and incident stroke was ascertained using validated methods. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7 years, 86 strokes occurred. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of stroke were significantly increased for MAC (rate ratio [RR], 3.12; 95% CI, 1.77 to 5.25) but not for AV sclerosis (RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.45 to 2.49). MAC was also associated with a reduced time to first stroke events after adjustment for clinical variables and the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and fibrinogen (hazard ratio [HR], 2.42; 95% CI, 1.39 to 4.21) or the echocardiographic covariates left ventricular hypertrophy and left atrial enlargement (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.41). Individuals with and without AV sclerosis showed no significant difference in stroke-free survival in unadjusted analyses (P=0.698). Crossing of the survival curves precluded multivariable analysis using Cox models. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of American Indians without clinical cardiovascular disease, the presence of MAC, but not AV sclerosis, proved to be a strong risk factor for incident stroke after extensive adjustment for other predictors. Individuals exhibiting MAC may benefit from aggressive risk factor modification, but this will require further investigation.

Outcomes among valvular heart disease patients experiencing ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the rates and predictors of survival and recurrence among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who received an Initial diagnosis based on 2-dimensional color Doppler echocardiography of moderate or severe mitral or aortic stenosis or regurgitation and who experienced a first ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or amaurosis fugax. PATIENTS AND METHODS: At the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn, we used the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify Individuals who met the criteria for inclusion in the study and to verify exclusion criteria. The study included all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who experienced a first Ischemic stroke, TIA, or amaurosis fugax within 30 days of or subsequent to receiving a first-time 2-dimensional color Doppler echocardlography-based diagnosis of moderate or severe mitral or aortic stenosis or regurgitation between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 1992. The Kaplan-Meier product-limit method was used to estimate the rates of subsequent stroke and death after the ischemic stroke, TIA, or amaurosis fugax. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the effect of several potential risk factors on subsequent stroke occurrence and death. RESULTS: For the 125 patients in the study, the Kaplan-Meier estimates of the risk of death and the risk of stroke at 2-year follow-up were 38.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29.9%-47.5%) and 18.5% (95% CI, 10.0%-27.0%), respectively. Compared with the general population, death rates were significantly Increased (standardized mortality ratio = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.38-2.19; P < .001) but rates of subsequent stroke occurrence were not (standardized morbidity ratio = 1.20; 95% CI, 0.75-1.84; P = .40). After adjustment for age, sex, and cardiac comorbidity, neither the type nor severity of valvular heart disease was an independent determinant of survival or subsequent stroke occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with mitral or aortic valvular heart disease who experience Ischemic stroke, TIA, or amaurosis fugax have Increased rates of death, but not recurrent stroke, compared with expected rates. Other cardiovascular risk factors are more important determinants of survival In these patients than the type or echocardiographic severity of the valvular heart disease.

C-reactive protein and atherosclerosis of the thoracic aorta: a population-based transesophageal echocardiographic study.

BACKGROUND: An association between systemic inflammatory markers and the presence and severity of atherosclerotic plaques has not been demonstrated in a nonselected population. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of inflammatory markers with aortic atherosclerotic plaques in a sample of the general population and in a subgroup free of clinical vascular disease. METHODS: Transesophageal echocardiography was performed in 386 subjects (median age, 66 years; 53% men). We examined the association between systemic inflammatory markers and aortic atherosclerotic plaques. RESULTS: Aortic plaques were present in 267 subjects (69%). Plaques at least 4 and 6 mm thick and mobile debris were present in 114, 41, and 20 subjects, respectively. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) level was associated with the presence of aortic plaques, adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, and additional atherosclerosis risk factors. Among subjects with plaques, hs-CRP level was independently associated with plaques at least 6 mm thick; similar trends were observed for the associations of hs-CRP level with plaques at least 4 mm thick and mobile debris. In subjects with aortic plaques who were free of clinically apparent coronary artery or cerebrovascular disease, hs-CRP level was independently associated with plaques at least 6 mm thick. CONCLUSIONS: Level of hs-CRP is independently associated with the presence and severity of aortic atherosclerotic plaques. These observations establish the association of systemic inflammation with anatomically defined atherosclerosis in the general population.

Atherosclerosis of the aorta: risk factor, risk marker, or innocent bystander? A prospective population-based transesophageal echocardiography study.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to investigate whether complex aortic atherosclerosis is associated with increased risk of vascular events in a non-selected population. BACKGROUND: In selected high-risk patients, aortic atherosclerosis is associated with increased risk of vascular events. METHODS: We describe the relationship between simple versus complex (>4-mm thick or mobile debris) aortic atherosclerotic plaques and vascular events during follow-up in a random sample of 585 persons (age > or =45 years) using 1993 to 2000 data from the Stroke Prevention: Assessment of Risk in a Community (SPARC), a prospective population-based longitudinal study. RESULTS: At five-year median follow-up (range, 0.5 to 6.5 years), cardiac events (death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, heart failure associated with coronary artery disease) and cerebrovascular events (ischemic fatal and non-fatal strokes, transient ischemic attacks) had occurred in 95 subjects and 41 subjects, respectively. Age, male gender, prior coronary artery disease, higher pulse pressure, and diabetes were significant cardiovascular predictors. Age, prior myocardial infarction, and a history of atrial fibrillation were significant cerebrovascular predictors. Simple aortic plaques (253 persons) were not independently associated with either cardiac or cerebrovascular events. Complex plaques (44 persons) were marginally associated with cardiac events, adjusting for age and gender (hazard ratio [HR], 2.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 4.68; p = 0.053 for two degrees of freedom [complex and simple plaques vs. no plaques]) but not after adjusting for additional clinical risk factors (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.57 to 2.62; p = 0.64). Complex plaques were associated with cerebrovascular events only univariately. CONCLUSIONS: Aortic atherosclerotic plaques are not associated with future cardiac or cerebrovascular events. Aortic atherosclerosis may not be an independent risk factor for vascular events in the general population.

Relation of coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease with atherosclerosis of the thoracic aorta in the general population.

The association between clinical coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and aortic atherosclerosis has not been examined in the general population. Transesophageal echocardiography was performed in 581 subjects, a random sample of the Olmsted County (Minnesota) population aged >/=45 years, participating in the Stroke Prevention: Assessment of Risk in a Community (SPARC) study. The frequency and severity of atherosclerosis of the thoracic aorta were determined in the population and the association between clinical coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and aortic atherosclerosis was examined. Previous myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and coronary artery bypass surgery were significantly associated with aortic atherosclerosis, adjusting for age and gender (p 4-mm thick, ulcerated plaques, or mobile debris), adjusting for age and gender (p <0.05). Age, smoking, pulse pressure, previous myocardial infarction (odds ratio [OR] 4.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42 to 15.40), and coronary artery bypass surgery (OR 5.12; 95% CI 1.01 to 26.01) were independently associated with aortic atherosclerosis. Among subjects with atherosclerosis, age, smoking, pulse pressure, hypertension treatment, and coronary artery disease (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.18 to 5.30) were independently associated with complex atherosclerosis. Weak associations were observed between previous ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and aortic atherosclerosis, associations that were not significant after age- and gender-adjustment (p >0.2). Thus, coronary artery disease is strongly associated with aortic atherosclerosis and complex atherosclerosis in the general population. Cerebrovascular disease is weakly associated with aortic atherosclerosis, thereby questioning the overall importance of aortic atherosclerosis in the pathogenesis of cerebrovascular events in the general population.